Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation Definition

Hyperinflation is merely an accelerated level of inflation that has a tendency to quickly destroy the actual value of the local currency since there is a rise in the cost of all products and services, and it causes people to lower their holdings in that particular currency as they opt to participate in foreign currencies that are relatively more stable.

Types of Inflation

If the price rise is up to 3% a year, it is creeping, a 3% to 10% rate is known as walking, and more than 10% is known as galloping. When the rate of inflation is unusual or too high (say 50%), it’s termed as hyperinflation.

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When does Hyperinflation Happen?

• Hyperinflation is a situation under which the inflation goes completely out of control. In such a situation the concept of inflation starts becoming meaningless. Although it is considered to be a rare event, in the 20^th century the event has happened in 55 countries including major economies like China and Germany.
• Hyperinflation happens when there is a significant decline in the gross domestic product (GDP), however, the money supply is randomly increasing.
• This results in a huge imbalance between the supply and demand in the economy. If the same is left unchecked for a while, the price of the currency starts following rapidly the prices of the goods starts rising substantially.
• It is often said that Hyperinflation is a man-made disaster. It often happens when there is a steep devaluation in the value of the currencyDevaluation In The Value Of The CurrencyCurrency devaluation is deliberately done in order to adjust the established exchange rates by the government and it is mostly done in the cases of fixed currencies. This mechanism is used by economies with a semi-fixed or fixed exchange rate, and it should not be confused with depreciation.read more and the citizens start losing confidence in it.
• In such a situation since people perceive that currency has no value, they start hoarding goods and commodities which actually have value. Since the demand for such goods starts rising, prices also start rising rapidly. This also has a ripple effect, as the price starts rising rapidly, the basic commodities like fuel and food become scarce, which kicks on the second cycle of skyrocket prices of essential commodities.
• The third stage of the problem starts when in response to this rise, the government starts printing more money to stabilize prices and increase liquidity in the system. This only increases the problem.

How does one quantify whether it is normal inflation or hyperinflation?

It has been seen that generally, normal inflation is measured on a monthly basis, hyperinflation is measured on a daily basis when the prices of goods start rising by 5 to 10 percent on the daily basis. Economically it has been said hyperinflation is a situation that occurs when the prices of the good increase by 50% over a period of one month.

History of Hyperinflation.

Below table shows the list of countries with History of Hyperinflation

source: goldonomics

Let us now a few examples in detail to understand the flow and impact of Hyperinflation.

Yugoslavia Hyperinflation (the 1990s)

• This is a case of prolonged and one of the most devastating hyperinflation ever. The country was on the verge of national dissolution, the former Yugoslavia was witnessing inflation rates which exceeded 75 percent annually.
• It was discovered that leaders of this Serbian nation plundered huge national treasury by issuing $1.5 billion to acquaintances. This forced the government to print an excessive amount of money so that they can meet their financial obligations.
• Hyperinflation quickly engulfed the whole economy, erasing all wealth and leading people to move into a barter system. The prices of goods doubled each day until the inflation level reached 300 million percent every month.
• The Government then took some quick measures where the production ultimately stopped and they replaced the currency with the German mark, which finally helped them stabilize the economy. In modern-day economics, this has been one of the worst-case of Hyperinflation.

Germany Hyperinflation (the 1920s)

• Sometimes it has been seen that major money-draining situations can also lead to Hyperinflation. This is the case of Germany in the 1920s.
• Reeling from the impact of World War 1, the country printed money to pay for the costs of World War 1. The money circulation during World War 1 increased from 13 billion Deutschmarks in 1913 to 60 billion Deutschmarks in 1920.
• During the same period,Sovereign debtSovereign DebtSovereign debt is the money borrowed by a country’s central government, primarily achieved by selling government bonds and securities. Treasury notes, bonds, and bills are some examples of sovereign debt issued by the United States.read more increased from 5 billion to 100 billion marks. Initially, it lowered the cost of exports and increased the economic growth of the economy.
• As the war ended the country was also impacted with another 132 billion marks in war reparations. This lead to a collapse in production and a huge shortage of goods.
• The major impact was seen in essential goods like food. Since the cash in circulation was high and goods available were in shortage, the price of everyday items started doubling every 3.7 days.
• As per estimates, the inflation rate per day was 20.9 percent.

Zimbabwe Hyperinflation (2004-2009)

• The most recent example of hyperinflation took place in the African nation of Zimbabwe. This happened between 2004 and 2009.
• This also started with war, the government printed huge money to fight the war of Congo. The situation on the supply side of goods was hit, due to the impact of major droughts during the same period.
• In this case, Hyperinflation was worse than Germany as the inflation rate stood at 98 percent a day and the prices, in general, were doubling every day.
• It ended post-2009 when people started accepting other currencies instead of Zimbabwean dollars.

Let’s look at a case study of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. What were the causes of it and its impact on the economy of the country?

Hyperinflation is characterized by the general increase in price levels of goods and services at a very high rate, say 50% a month.

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe began in the late 1990s, shortly after the confiscation of private farms from landowners. It came towards the end of Zimbabwean involvement in the Second Congo War. During the height of inflation from 2008 to 2009, it was difficult to measure Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation because the government of Zimbabwe stopped filing official inflation statistics. However, Zimbabwe’s peak month of inflation is estimated at 79.6 billion percent in mid-November 2008.

Some of the causes and effects of the same are shown below.

Causes

• Land reform program
• War funding
• Economic Mismanagement

Effects

• Persistently very high inflation
• Severe Unemployment
• Drop-in life expectancy
• Severe food crisis
• Widespread diseases and high mortality rate

What does Central Bank do to maintain inflation?

In the modern-day world, Central banks of the country are responsible to maintain inflation under control. The primary job of the Central bank is to control inflation under control. This is done through the management of interest rates in the economy and controlling the money supply. Tightening the money supply helps in the reduction of inflation while increasing the money supply is coupled with increasing inflation. The United States Fed has the target inflation rate of 2% for the economy. If the Inflation rate in the economy moves above 2%, the Fed will increase the Fed Funds rate (a benchmark for the interest rate in the economy). This will reduce the money supply in the system and hence the lowering of inflation in the economy.

How Investors can avoid the Hyperinflation Trap?

Generally, Hyperinflation is a function of mismanagement and is a rare event. However, investors and readers are advised to be cautious about it.

Do not keep your money stagnant otherwise, inflation will eat away its value

• A penny saved is a penny earned. But thanks to inflation, over time, the value of the penny saved could be much less than when it was earned.
• A lot of wealth is destroyed and the poor are hurt the most in such a situation. This results in a huge imbalance between the supply and demand in the economy.
• If the same is left unchecked for a while, the price of the currency starts following rapidly the prices of the goods starts rising substantially.
• It is often said that Hyperinflation is a man-made disaster. It often happens when there is a steep devaluation in the value of the currencyDevaluation In The Value Of The CurrencyCurrency devaluation is deliberately done in order to adjust the established exchange rates by the government and it is mostly done in the cases of fixed currencies. This mechanism is used by economies with a semi-fixed or fixed exchange rate, and it should not be confused with depreciation.read more and the citizens start losing confidence in it. In such a situation since people perceive that currency has no value, they start hoarding goods and commodities which actually have value.
• If you save money by just putting it aside at home, it will lose value over time. So, always invest money to beat inflation and get some handsome returns in the future. If you can’t think of where to invest your money, ask your parents or some elder person in the family for their guidance. Let it grow by gaining interest.
• But whatever you do, do not just lock your money up in your safe and keep it stagnant. If you do this, you will be losing money without even knowing it.
• The more money you keep stagnant the more money you will be losing.

Rate of returns on your investment should be higher than the rate of inflation

• When investing, you have to make sure that the rate of return on your investment is higher than the rate of inflation.

What is the rate of return on investment?

• The rate of return is how much you make on an investment.
• Suppose you invest Rs.100 in the market and over a year, you make Rs.110, then your rate of return is 10%.
• = (Latest price/Old price-1)*100
• = (110/100-1)*100 = 10%

What is the rate of Inflation?

• A general increase in prices is called inflation and the rate at which or how much the prices go up is called the rate of inflation.
• If the price of chocolate is Rs. 80 then after a year with a 4% rate of inflation the price will go up to (Rs. 80 x 1.04) = 83.2

If the rate of inflation is 10%, you should look for an investment avenue that will return at a rate of more than 10%. So your money grows at a faster rate than the rate at which your money’s value or your purchasing power is going down. The situation goes completely haywire and people tend to lose confidence in the currency. This is when the final call of scrapping the currency is needed and the general solution has been to adopt a new currency of some other country. This tends to increase confidence and people stop buying commodities perceiving value in the same. Governments need to play a vital role in maintaining confidence in the currency so that people don’t start hoarding up essential commodities.

Conclusion

Inflation overall is a very important concept that the central bank of the country intends to manage. However, mismanagement and a wrong turn of policy can make it a bomb in a form of hyperinflation. It can ruin the economy and people feel worse as part of the process. A lot of wealth is destroyed and the poor are hurt the most in such a situation. This results in a huge imbalance between the supply and demand in the economy. If the same is left unchecked for a while, the price of the currency starts following rapidly the prices of the goods starts rising substantially. It is often said that Hyperinflation is a man-made disaster.

It often happens when there is a steep devaluation in the value of the currencyDevaluation In The Value Of The CurrencyCurrency devaluation is deliberately done in order to adjust the established exchange rates by the government and it is mostly done in the cases of fixed currencies. This mechanism is used by economies with a semi-fixed or fixed exchange rate, and it should not be confused with depreciation.read more and the citizens start losing confidence in it. In such a situation since people perceive that currency has no value, they start hoarding goods and commodities which actually have value. In the modern-day world, Central banks of the country are responsible to maintain inflation under control.

The primary job of the Central bank is to control inflation under control. Some of the government measures which can curb such disasters are like working on creating resources, have strong policies that can control the printing of money, proactive management by the Central bank of the country, not to print excessive for funding debt. If the rate of inflation is 10%, you should look for an investment avenue that will return at a rate of more than 10%. So your money grows at a faster rate than the rate at which your money’s value or your purchasing power is going down. Investors should look for avenues by means of which they create returns which are higher than the inflation, this is the only time we are creating wealth. Investors are advised not to keep the money idle as money tends to lose value if kept idle.

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