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Upside Potential

Updated on May 11, 2024
Article byShrestha Ghosal
Edited byShrestha Ghosal
Reviewed byDheeraj Vaidya, CFA, FRM

Upside Potential Meaning

Upside Potential is a concept in technical analysis and fundamental analysis, which indicates the possibility of an increase in a stock’s value. This method allows an investor or an analyst to determine the future value of an investment. It acts as a motivating factor to engage in an investment.

Upside Potential

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A higher potential for upside of a stock signifies that the perceived value of the stock is more than its current displayed worth. This measure aids in reflecting the capability of a business to earn revenue through sales and make effective judgments with respect to its financial resources.

Key Takeaways

  • Upside potential is the expected increase in the worth of a portfolio, investment, company, industry, and economy. The upside can be expressed in monetary or percentage forms.
  • Analysts generally apply technical or fundamental analysis methodologies to estimate the future worth and growth potential of a financial asset.
  • A higher upside signifies the asset is valued higher than its current market price.
  • City analysts perform extensive studies on business activities, and they may assist investors in identifying companies with this potential.

Upside Potential Explained

Upside potential is the potential growth in value of an investment, business, portfolio, market, industry, or economy. The upside is expressed in monetary or percentage format. Analysts usually employ either technical analysis or fundamental analysis strategies to forecast the future value and potential of a financial asset, especially stock prices.

A higher upside suggests that the stock is worth more than its current represented stock price. This concept is the driving factor that encourages an individual to make financial investments. The extent of the rise in the upside is primarily determined by the risk associated with the investment. This potential also signifies assessing a fund manager‘s efficiency by comparing their performance with an established standard or benchmark.

How To Identify A Stock’s Upside Potential?

The following strategies can help identify the stocks of companies with upside potential:

  • City analysts, also known as Wall Street analysts in the United States, research organizations. They often focus on a single industry and provide evaluations of the company’s future performance. Their observations usually include a rating that indicates whether investors should purchase, hold, or sell shares based on their studies. They also establish a price target, which is the price at which they anticipate the stock will trade in the next twelve months. This screening method enables investors to search for stocks based on their average potential for upside.
  • Perspectives from individuals with expertise may help investors and analysts identify stocks with bullish upside. For instance, directors are well-informed about the companies where they work. Recognizing if these top executives have a favorable or adverse outlook towards an organization based on their trading activity may be highly effective for identifying companies with upside potential.

How To Calculate A Stock’s Upside Potential?

The upside potential of a stock is the degree of upward price movement that an analyst or investor anticipates for a specific stock.

The formula employed for calculating the upside potential of a stock is:

Upside potential = 1 PM / 2 PM

Where,

1 PM = first upper price movement, and

2 PM = second upper price movement

Examples

Let us study the following examples to understand this potential:

Example #1

Let us assume that Sam is a technical analyst who wants to invest in a high-performing stock. He also wanted to take into account the stock’s potential for an upside in the future. Sam narrowed down his options and started tracking the stock price movements of Techniche Software. Employing the bullish potential formula, he noted that 1 PM / 2 PM for the company was 2.49. This figure indicated that the potential for an upside in the stocks of the company was 2.49. This is an upside potential example.

Example #2

On July 26, 2023, gold emerged out of a flag formation, indicating bullish potential. It displayed substantial support at $1,952, with upside targets at $1,997 and $2,010. It eventually intended to set new highs in records. Gold was technically positioned to continue its uptrend, challenging previous highs of around $2,082. Then, it would continue exceeding that high and set new record highs. This is another upside potential example.

Upside Potential vs Downside Risk

The differences between the two are as follows:

Upside Potential

  • The upside is the anticipated increase in the market value of an investment. It is the opposite of the downside.
  • It acts as the most substantial incentive for an individual to make investments. Businesses that control their expenses efficiently are likely to enhance their profit margins and attain a significantly higher upside.
  • An upside may also signify the assessment of a fund manager’s proficiency through evaluating the fund’s performance to a benchmark.

Downside Risk

  • A downside risk is a decline or downward fluctuation in the value of a financial asset, including a stock. It can also indicate a downturn in a financial portfolio, business, industry, or financial market.
  • The concept of downside risk implies the possible loss in the worth of a security if the market conditions lead to a decline in its price.
  • According to the measurement technique employed, a downside risk reflects the worst possible outcome for an investment and the extent to which the investor is likely to lose.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is the upside potential ratio?

This ratio evaluates a financial asset’s return when compared to the minimum acceptable return. This evaluation allows a company or individual to select investments that generate relatively good upside returns per unit of downside risk. The ratio estimates risk-adjusted returns. All of these metrics are based on a certain level of risk. In practice, the standard deviation is commonly employed to determine this ratio due to its mathematical effectiveness.

What is the upside potential of risk?

Upside risk is the uncertain increasing capability of a trading instrument, market, industry, or economy. Upside risk is positive, which indicates that it could be advantageous to an investor or the company. It determines the degree to which the market price of a stock or other investment may rise above the anticipated levels. It occurs when the investor expects to get a more favorable result than the standard against which it is evaluated.

What is the upside potential for a business?

The potential for upside of a business is the venture capital investment’s possibility of generating significant returns or profits. It indicates the good or favorable outcome that business investors expect when they choose to invest in a specific business project or opportunity.

This article has been a guide to Upside Potential and its meaning. We explain how to calculate and identify it, its differences with downside risk, and examples. You may also find some useful articles here –

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