What is Econometrics?
Econometrics is an understanding of relations of economic data by using statistical model referencing and getting an observation or pattern from provided data for developing the approximation future trend. Econometrics is simply economic with the additive of Mathematics and Statistics and helps in forecasting and estimation by applying statistical methods.
Methods of Econometrics
The more common methods are:
- Multiple Linear Regression
- Estimation theory
- Linear Programming in ExcelLinear Programming In ExcelLinear programming in excel helps implement this applied mathematics aspect to excel worksheet for solving business problems through resource optimization. For this purpose, the user can opt for the "Excel Solver".
- Frequency DistributionFrequency DistributionFrequency distribution refers to the repetitiveness of a variable, i.e., the number of times a variable occurs in a data set. In excel, it is a function to tabulate or graphically represent the recurrence of a particular value in a group or at an interval.
- Probability DistributionProbability DistributionProbability distribution is the calculation that shows the possible outcome of an event with the relative possibility of occurrence or non-occurrence as required. It is a mathematical function that gives results as per the possible events.
- Correlation & Regression
- Time-Series Analysis
- Simulation Equation
Examples of Econometrics for Finance
Below are examples of econometrics for Finance
Econometrics Example #1
Michael has an income of $50000. The spending pattern of his income is 10000 – Fixed rent and other household expenses is 50% of his gross incomeGross IncomeThe difference between revenue and cost of goods sold is gross income, which is a profit margin made by a corporation from its operating activities. It is the amount of money an entity makes before paying non-operating expenses like interest, rent, and electricity. earned during the period.
Multiple linear regression is one of the best tools to develop a relationship on the basis of past trends.
By using the equation one can get the amount Michael will spend on the basis of his earned income.
- Expense = B0 (Fixed rent) + B1 (other household exp.) + e (Error term)
- = 10000 + 50% (50000)
- = 35000
Error term shows that there can be little up or down deviation from the result arrived by applying the statistical tools.
Econometrics Example #2
Let’s find out the salary of the person on the basis of his working experience
Minimum wages: $10K
On the basis of regression on the person salary its find out that B1 = 2000
So by applying the method, it can be understood as a person will get the minimum wages of 10000 + (2000*No. of years of experience)
These 10K and 2K are hypothesized values and are to be tested on statistical tools like t-testT-testA T-test is a method to identify whether the means of two groups differ from one another significantly. It is an inferential statistics approach that facilitates the hypothesis testing. & F-test. If they are not significantly different from 0, then the hypothesized value has no relevance and test need to be done again to get a different value.
How does Econometrics Works in Finance?
|Theories referred||Parameters used in data|
|Models selected||Confidence area drawn|
|Assumption taken||Test of hypothesis conduct|
|Methods applied||Graphics tools used|
Advantages of Econometrics
Here are the advantages of Econometrics.
- By using the tools or applied econometrics one can be able to convert data into a specific model for the purpose of making the decision that supports empirical data.
- Help to getting the specified pattern or result from the scattered data.
- Benefitted to enable us to retrieve the relevant information from the basket of information.
Disadvantages of Econometrics
There are some disadvantages of Econometrics.
- Sometimes the relation build-up by the economic tools is spurious i.e. even no relation exists between two variables but the model is showing a pattern on the basis of past information. Ex. Correlation between rain and Dividend paid
- This shows that whenever the rain comes in a quarter then only the company declares the dividendDeclares The DividendDividend declared is that portion of profits earned that the company’s board of directors decides to pay off as dividends to the shareholders of such company in return to the investment done by the shareholders through the purchase of the company’s securities. in that period. Even the rain has no relation of dividend paid but as per the trend establish it can provide the false signals which can lead to the wrong decision.
- There is always a choice between simplicity and accuracy. Model specification is a very important task in applied economicsApplied EconomicsApplied Economics is the implementation of theoretical economics principles to help solve a particular cause, issue, or situation. It is the use of economics as a tool rather than just describing the theory and can be applied at both the micro and macro levels.. Choosing less variable can help in simplicity and provide faster result but it can be inaccurate due to insufficient information and if one goes for the high no. of variable then the model can be critical, uneconomical, or gigantic.
- There can be a problem of multicollinearity between the variables used in the data. It’s very important that the variable chosen should have been a low correlation between two explanatory variables. The model left this section on the model user.
- The tools of econometrics are very judgmental. The final conclusion can vary from user to user.
- Result depending on the type and specification of the model. Results are model-oriented.
- Data Economical, Feasible, Time to get results to be considered while applying the model.
- It can be applied both on Cross-sectional or time-series data.
- There should be a perimeter or test required to conduct the resulting effectiveness like f-test in excel, T-test, Statistics table, ANOVA table analysis by using tool packs.
- Always remember to check that whether the result comes out are statistically significant for taking decisions
- It evolves out of the model or perimeter under consideration
- The result must be empirically as well as futuristic favorable.
- It is a reiterative exercise and different models can also be applied to the single problem to get better insights.
- Overfitting or underfitting of results can be diluted by an improved model specification.
This has been a guide to what is econometrics and its definition. Here we discuss top methods and examples of Econometrics for Finance along with advantages and disadvantages. You may learn more about our articles below on accounting –