Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis (Table of Contents)

• Formula
• Examples

What is Sensitivity Analysis?

The term “sensitivity analysis” refers to the method applied in the determination of how the independent variable or variables eventually influence a particular dependent variable under a certain set of assumptions. Sensitivity analysis is also referred to as “what-if analysis”. It aids in the analysis of the sensitivity of the output is due to the changes in one or more input while the other inputs are kept constant.

The formula for sensitivity analysis is basically a financial model in excel where the analyst is required to identify the key variables for the output formula and then assess the output based on different combinations of the independent variables.

Mathematically, the dependent output formula is represented as,

Explanation of the Sensitivity Analysis Formula

The formula for sensitivity analysis can be computed by using the following steps:

Step 1: Firstly, the analyst is required to design the basic formula which will act as the output formula. For instance, say NPV formula can be taken as the output formula.

Step 2: Next, the analyst needs to identify which are the variables that is required to be sensitized as they are key to the output formula. In the NPV formula, the cost of capital and the initial investment can be the independent variables.

Step 3: Next, determine the probable range of the independent variables.

Step 4: Next, open an excel sheet and then put the range of one of the independent variable along the rows and the other set along the columns.

Range of 1^st independent variable

Range of 2^nd independent variable

Step 5: Next, go to “Data” tab and click on the “What-if Analysis” button. Under that select the option of “Data Table”.

Step 6: Next, fill in the “Row input cell” with the reference to the 1^st independent variable and the “Column input cell” with the reference to the 2^nd independent variable.

Step 7: Finally, click enter for the table to take effect and present the probable outcomes. The table hence created is the sensitivity table.

Examples of Sensitivity Analysis Formula (with Excel Template)

Let’s see some simple to advanced examples of Sensitivity Analysis in excel to understand it better.

Example #1

Let us take the example of a simple output formula which is stated as the summation of the square of two independent variables X and Y.

In this case, let us assume the range of X as 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10, while that of Y as 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13. Based on the above-mentioned technique, all the combinations of the two independent variables will be calculated to assess the sensitivity of the output.

For instance, if X = 3 (Cell B2) and Y = 7 (Cell B3), then Z = 3² + 7² = 58 (Cell B4)

Z = 58

For the calculation of Sensitivity Analysis go to the data tab in excel and then select What if analysis option. For the further procedure of sensitivity analysis calculation refer to the given article here – Two-Variable Data Table in Excel

Example #2

Let us take another example of bond pricing where the analyst has identified the coupon rate and the yield to maturity as the independent variables and the dependent output formula is the bond price. The coupon is paid half yearly with a par value of $1,000 and the bond is expected to mature in five years. Determine the sensitivity of the bond price for different values of coupon rate and yield to maturity.

In this case, the analyst has taken the range of coupon rate as 5.00%, 5.50%, 6.00%, 6.50% and 7.00%, while that of coupon rate as 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9%. Based on the above-mentioned technique, all the combinations of yield to maturity and coupon rate is taken to calculate the sensitivity of the bond price.

Therefore, the calculation of Bond Price is as follows

Bond Price =$102,160

For the calculation of Sensitivity Analysis go to the data tab in excel and then select What if analysis option. For the further procedure of sensitivity analysis calculation refer to the given article here – Two-Variable Data Table in Excel

Relevance and Uses

A sensitivity analysis is a technique which uses data table and is one of the powerful excel tools which lets a financial user understand the result of the financial model under various conditions. It can also be seen as the perfect complement to another excel tool which is known as the scenario manager and as such it adds more flexibility to the valuation model during the process of analysis and finally in case of the presentation.

As such, it is very important for an analyst to appreciate the method of creation of a data table and then interpret its results to ensure that the analysis is heading in the desired direction. Further, a data table can be an effective and efficient way for presentation to the boss or client when it comes to expected financial performance under different circumstances.

Recommended Articles

This has been a guide to what is Sensitivity Analysis and its definition. Here we discuss how to perform Sensitivity Analysis using What if Analysis along with examples and downloadable excel template. You can learn more about financial modeling from the following articles –

• What is the Marginal Cost of Capital?
• One Variable Data Table in Excel
• Regression Excel Analysis
• Financial Modeling 3 Statement Templates
• Cost-Benefit Analysis Steps