What is Country Risk Premium?
Country Risk Premium is defined as the additional returns expected by the investor in order to assume the risk of investing in foreign markets as compared to the domestic country.
Investing in foreign countries has become more common now than it was before. A United States investor might like to invest in the securities of Asian markets, say China or India. This is as much alluring as risky it is. The geopolitical scenario is not the same in different regions of the world. There are risks associated with every economy, and Country Risk Premium is a measure of this risk. Since the certainty on investment returns in foreign markets is generally less as compared to domestic markets, It becomes vital here.
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For eg:
Source: Country Risk Premium (wallstreetmojo.com)
In our hypothetical example here, China faces its own sets of macroeconomic risks. These risks make investors skeptical about their investments. For any given asset, market risk premium, as believed by many analysts, does not capture the excess risk posed by the economic factorsEconomic FactorsEconomic factors are external, environmental factors that influence business performance, such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth, among others.read more of the country.
Factors to consider while estimating Country risk premium:
- Macroeconomic factorsMacroeconomic FactorsMacroeconomic factors are those that have a broad impact on the national economy, such as population, income, unemployment, investments, savings, and the rate of inflation, and are monitored by highly professional teams governed by the government or other economists.read more like inflation.
- Currency fluctuations.
- Fiscal deficitFiscal DeficitFiscal deficit refers to the situation where the total budget expenditure exceeds the total budget receipts, excluding the government borrowings in a given fiscal year. It determines the amount the government needs to borrow for meeting its excess expenditure.read more and related policies;
Country Risk Premium Calculation
Country risk premia can be based on the yields on sovereign bonds because these securities give a good picture of the macro within a country. To a couple, it with the equity and bond market indices is to strengthen the risk measurement. Both these markets hold substantial amounts of investor monies, which make them a better indicator of country risk.
Country Risk Premium Formula
The formula for Country risk premium is:
Thus, more technically,
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For eg:
Source: Country Risk Premium (wallstreetmojo.com)
Examples
Let’s see some examples of country riskCountry RiskCountry risk denotes the probability of a foreign government (country) defaulting on its financial obligations as a result of economic slowdown or political unrest. Even a little rumour or revelation can make a state less attractive to investors who want to park their hard-earned income in a reliable place.read more premium calculation to understand it better.
Example #1
If a country has an annualized return of 18% and 12.5% on equity and bond index, respectively, over a 5-year period, what is the country risk premium? The country’s treasury bond has yielded a 3.5% return, whereas sovereign bond has a 7% yield on a similar period.
Solution:
Simple substitution in the formula above gives us the CRP.
- CRP = (7% – 3.5%) x (18%/12.5%)
- CRP = 3.5% x 1.44%
- CRP = 5.04%
Example #2
Calculate the CRP with similar yields as in the example above, other than the equity index yield, which is 21%.
Solution:
Again, putting the values in the formula, we get
- CRP = (7% – 3.5%) x (21%/12.5%)
- CRP = 5.88%
Notice that as the equity index yield goes up from 18% to 21%, the CRP increases from 5.04% to 5.88%. This can be attributed to the higher volatility in the equity marketEquity MarketAn equity market is a platform that enables the companies to issue their securities to the investors; it also facilitates the further exchange of these stocks between the buyers and sellers. It comprises various stock exchanges like New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).read more, which has produced a higher return and hence raises the CRP with it.
Country Risk Premium Calculation & CAPM
Country risk premium finds most use in the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing ModelCapital Asset Pricing ModelThe Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) defines the expected return from a portfolio of various securities with varying degrees of risk. It also considers the volatility of a particular security in relation to the market.read more) theory. A CAPM model is a measure of return on equityReturn On EquityReturn on Equity (ROE) represents financial performance of a company. It is calculated as the net income divided by the shareholders equity. ROE signifies the efficiency in which the company is using assets to make profit.read more considering the non-systematic risk or firm risk where,
- Re is the return on equity,
- Rf is the risk-free rateRisk-free RateA risk-free rate is the minimum rate of return expected on investment with zero risks by the investor. It is the government bonds of well-developed countries, either US treasury bonds or German government bonds. Although, it does not exist because every investment has a certain amount of risk.read more,
- Β is the BetaBetaBeta is a financial metric that determines how sensitive a stock's price is to changes in the market price (index). It's used to analyze the systematic risks associated with a specific investment. In statistics, beta is the slope of a line that can be calculated by regressing stock returns against market returns.read more or market risk, and
- Rm is return expected from the marketReturn Expected From The MarketThe Expected Return formula is determined by applying all the Investments portfolio weights with their respective returns and doing the total of results. Expected return = (p1 * r1) + (p2 * r2) + ………… + (pn * rn), where, pi = Probability of each return and ri = Rate of return with probability. read more.
We have two approaches to estimate Rebased on the inclusion of CRP.
- One way to include country risk premium (CRP) is to add it to the risk-free and risky asset component. Hence,
- Another way to include CRP in the CAPM model is to make it a function of firm risk.
Approach 1 differs from 2 in that Country risk is unconditional addition to every firm’s risk-return profile.
Example #3
Calculate the return on equity from the following information:
- Risk-Free Rate (Rf): 4%
- Expected Market Return (Rm): 8%
- Firm Beta (β): 1.2
- Country Risk Premium: 5.2%
Solution:
From both the approaches, we have the following results,
Approach 1
- Re = Rf + β x (Rm-Rf) + CRP
- Re = 4% + 1.2 x (8% – 4%) + 5.2%
- Re = 14%
Approach 2
- Re = Rf + β x (Rm-Rf + CRP)
- Re = 4% + 1.2 x (8% – 4% + 5.2%)
- Re = 15.04%
Investors’ Perspective
While the equity risk premium gives investors the incentive to invest in risky assets in domestic markets, It provides further impetus to accept uncertainties in foreign markets. Some of the plus points of CRP are –
- To a major extent, country risk premia clearly distinguish between the risk-return profiles of developed economies as against developing economies. Prof. Aswath Damodaran has summarized country risk premia & related components on a global basis. Below is an excerpt:
| Country | Equity Risk Premium | Country Risk Premium |
|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 16.37% | 10.41% |
| India | 8.60% | 2.64% |
| Korea DPR | 22.61% | 16.65% |
| UK | 6.65% | 0.69% |
| USA | 5.96% | 0.00% |
- According to some analysts, beta does not estimate the country risk for firms, thus resulting in a low equity risk premiumEquity Risk PremiumEquity Risk Premium is the expectation of an investor other than the risk-free rate of return. This additional return is over and above the risk free return.read more for the same risk ventures.
- Some scholars also argue that the risks due to a country’s macroeconomicsMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics aims at studying aspects and phenomena important to the national economy and world economy at large like GDP, inflation, fiscal policies, monetary policies, unemployment rates.read more are better captured by the cash flow positions of the firm. This raises the issue around the futility of country risk estimation as an additional level of security.
Conclusion
In simple words, Country Risk Premium is the difference between the market interest rates of a benchmark country in comparison to that of the subject country. Of course, the less attractive economies have to offer a higher risk premium for foreign investors to attract investments.
It is a dynamic statistic that needs to be continuously tracked and updated in analyses around financial marketsFinancial MarketsThe term "financial market" refers to the marketplace where activities such as the creation and trading of various financial assets such as bonds, stocks, commodities, currencies, and derivatives take place. It provides a platform for sellers and buyers to interact and trade at a price determined by market forces.read more and investments. It assumes many factors whilst ignoring many others. Country risk can be better estimated when every significant aspect is appropriately valued in terms of risk and return. Events such as the Russia-NATO conflict, tensions in the Gulf region, Brexit, etc. have will certainly have an impact on the geopolitical risk scenario.
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