Overvalued Stocks Meaning
Overvalued stocks are those stocks whose current price does not do justice to the earning potential and have an inflated PE Ratio as compared to its fundamental value (found using DCF valuation, Comparable Comps) and therefore, analysts expect its share price to fall sharply in a market with due course of time.
Explanation
The most important thing about overvalued stocks is the P/E ratio which indicates the earning of the company against the price of the stock. It may be one that is generally traded at a rate that traded at a much higher PE ratio as compared to its peer group.
We have two contrast theories in the market regarding the concept of overvalued or undervalued stocks. One is based on the perfect efficient market concept where few analysts believe that fundamental analysis of a stock is waste because there cannot be an overvalued or undervalued stock as the market has full knowledge about the trade and the stocks involved in the trade. On the other hand, there is a group of the fundamental analyst who strongly believes that there are chances to make money or lose money in the market solely based on the concept of overvaluation or undervaluation and that overvalued and undervalued stocks also exist in the market.
Overvalued stocks are the major instruments used by traders to cover short positions, which means them selling their shares to again purchase them back when the price dips to the market standard. Traders may also deal in stocks which may be an outcome of premium paid because of the brand name or superior management associated with the company which sharply increases the value of the stock when compared to peer stocks operating in the same industry.
How to Spot Overvalued Stocks?
The most common way to detect such stocks being traded in the free market is by doing an earning analysis by taking the help of P/E ratio analysis or price to earnings ratio analysis. This is a dimension that brings about a sort of comparison between by taking the most important factor which is the market value of stocks. The most important thing to watch about for is the P/E ratio which indicates the earning of the company against the price of the stock. An overvalued stock may be one that is generally traded at a rate that is much higher than its peer group.
Analysts doing a comparison can create a bucket where they take few stocks trading at a high price to earnings ratio and along with it take some stocks of companies operating in the same industry with low price to earnings ratio and see how much the P/E is differing. To quote an example we can talk about a stock that is being traded at $180 and has earnings per share or EPS as $6. Thus we see the P/E here is dividing the market value of a stock by earnings per share which is 180/6 = 30. Thus, the stock is being traded in the market at 30 times more than what its earning is actually.
Examples
Example #1
Let’s understand about a stock that is being traded at $200 and has earnings per share or EPS as $4. Thus we see the P/E here is dividing the market value of the stock by earnings per share which is 200/4 = 50. Thus, the stock is being traded in the market at 50 times more than what its earning is actually.
Example #2
Another example of overvalued stock can be the OTT digital platform company called Netflix which is a very common online application used in every nook and corner of the world. This company had an initial share price of $120 when it started with and eventually peaked to close to $200. The rise shifted its PE ratio to close to 240. The stock is now trading at almost 28 times to what its book value is. Though being overvalued analyst still consider the stock and has provided a rating of buying or outperform based solely on the belief that it has the potential to justify its overvaluation.
Overvalued Stocks vs Undervalued Stocks
Overvalued stocks are the ones whose current market price doesn’t justify it’s earning potential. It basically has an overrated price to earnings ratio and analysts expect their price to fall sharply in a market with due course of time. They are the ones which are a result of emotional trading or logic-less decision making involved with the trade which may inflate the price of the share in the market and people just like herd behaviour may fall for it but eventually realize that there is no value associated with the stock.
On the other hand, undervalued stocks are just the opposite of overvalued stocks. It generally sells at a rate which is quite lower to what it’s intrinsic or book value is. To calculate the intrinsic value one can refer to the company’s financial statement and other fundamentals like cash flow, ROA, management of capital etc. These stocks are very good in the long run provided the company is performing as buying at a low price can fetch high returns on a market correction.
Conclusion
Overvalued or undervalued stocks can be found by the prime dimension as discussed which is called the P/E ratio but then again there is no fixed value. A share with á high P/E of 40 may be still undervalued as it all is dependent on the earning. It is thus solely based on the analyst to decide whether the stock is over or undervalued and trade accordingly.
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