Overvalued Stocks

Overvalued Stocks Meaning

Overvalued stocks are those stocks whose current price does not do justice to the earning potential and have an inflated PE Ratio as compared to its fundamental value (found using DCF valuation, Comparable Comps) and therefore, analysts expect its share price to fall sharply in a market with due course of time.

Explanation

The most important thing about overvalued stocks is the P/E ratioP/E RatioThe price to earnings (PE) ratio measures the relative value of the corporate stocks, i.e., whether it is undervalued or overvalued. It is calculated as the proportion of the current price per share to the earnings per share. read more, which indicates the earningEarningEarnings are usually defined as the net income of the company obtained after reducing the cost of sales, operating expenses, interest, and taxes from all the sales revenue for a specific time period. In the case of an individual, it comprises wages or salaries or other payments.read more of the company against the price of the stock. It may be one that is generally traded at a rate that traded at a much higher PE ratio as compared to its peer group.

We have two contrast theories in the market regarding the concept of overvalued or undervalued stocks. One is based on the perfect efficient market concept where few analysts believe that fundamental analysis of a stock is waste because there cannot be an overvalued or undervalued stock as the market has full knowledge about the trade and the stocks involved in the trade. On the other hand, there is a group of the fundamental analyst who firmly believes that there are chances to make money or lose money in the market solely based on the concept of overvaluation or undervaluation and that overvalued and undervalued stocks also exist in the market.

Overvalued stocks are the major instruments used by traders to cover shortCover ShortShort covering refers to buying already sold security which is borrowed in anticipation of a fall in price to cover the short position. A Short position is created by short-selling or selling of security initially borrowed with the expectation of buying at a lower price.read more positions, which means them selling their shares to again purchase them back when the price dips to the market standard. Traders may also deal in stocks, which may be an outcome of premium paid because of the brand name or superior management associated with the company, which sharply increases the value of the stock when compared to peer stocks operating in the same industry.

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Source: Overvalued Stocks (wallstreetmojo.com)

How to Spot Overvalued Stocks?

The most common way to detect such stocks being traded in the free market is by doing an earning analysis by taking the help of P/E ratio analysis or price to earnings ratio analysis. This is a dimension that brings about a sort of comparison between by taking the most critical factor, which is the market value of stocks. The most important thing to watch about for is the P/E ratio, which indicates the earning of the company against the price of the stock. An overvalued stock may be one that is generally traded at a rate that is much higher than its peer group.

Analysts making comparisons can create a bucket where they take few stocks trading at a high price to earnings ratio and, along with it, take some stocks of companies operating in the same industry with low price to earnings ratio and see how much the P/E is differing. To quote an example, we can talk about a stock that is being traded at $180 and has earnings per shareEarnings Per ShareEarnings Per Share (EPS) is a key financial metric that investors use to assess a company's performance and profitability before investing. It is calculated by dividing total earnings or total net income by the total number of outstanding shares. The higher the earnings per share (EPS), the more profitable the company is.read more or EPS as $6. Thus we see the P/E here is dividing the market value of a stock by earnings per share, which is 180/6 = 30. Therefore, the stock is being traded in the market at 30 times more than what its earning is actually.

Examples

Example #1

Let’s understand about a stock that is being traded at $200 and has earnings per share or EPS as $4. Thus we see the P/E here is dividing the market value of the stock by earnings per share, which is 200/4 = 50. Therefore, the stock is being traded in the market at 50 times more than what its earning is actually.

Example #2

Another example of overvalued stock can be the OTT digital platform company called Netflix, which is a very common online application used in every nook and corner of the world. This company had an initial share price of $120 when it started with and eventually peaked to close to $200. The rise shifted its PE ratioPE RatioThe price to earnings (PE) ratio measures the relative value of the corporate stocks, i.e., whether it is undervalued or overvalued. It is calculated as the proportion of the current price per share to the earnings per share. read more to close to 240. The stock is now trading at almost 28 times to what its book valueBook ValueThe book value formula determines the net asset value receivable by the common shareholders if the company dissolves. It is calculated by deducting the preferred stocks and total liabilities from the total assets of the company.read more is. Though being overvalued analyst still consider the stock and has provided a rating of buying or outperform based solely on the belief that it has the potential to justify its overvaluation.

Overvalued Stocks vs. Undervalued Stocks

Overvalued stocks are the ones whose current market price doesn’t justify it’s earning potential. It basically has an overrated price to earnings ratio, and analysts expect their price to fall sharply in a market with due course of time. They are the ones which are a result of emotional trading, or logic-less decision making involved with the trade, which may inflate the price of the share in the market, and people, just like herd behavior, may fall for it but eventually realize that there is no value associated with the stock.

On the other hand, undervalued stocks are just the opposite of overvalued stocks. It generally sells at a rate which is quite lower to what it’s intrinsic, or book value is. To calculate the intrinsic valueCalculate The Intrinsic ValueIntrinsic value is defined as the net present value of all future free cash flows to equity (FCFE) generated by a company over the course of its existence. It reflects the true value of the company that underlies the stock, i.e. the amount of money that might be received if the company and all of its assets were sold today.read more, one can refer to the company’s financial statement and other fundamentals like cash flow, ROA, management of capital, etc. These stocks are excellent in the long run provided the company is performing as buying at a low price can fetch high returns on a market correctionMarket CorrectionMarket Correction is usually referred to as a fall of 10% or more from its latest high. It happens due to various reasons such as declining macro-economic factors, intense pessimism across the economy, securities specific factors, over-inflation in the markets, and so on.read more.

Conclusion

Overvalued or undervalued stocks can be found by the prime dimension as discussed, which is called the P/E ratio, but then again, there is no fixed value. A share with á high P/E of 40 may still be undervalued as it all is dependent on the earning. It is thus solely based on the analyst to decide whether the stock is over or undervalued and trade accordingly.

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